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China has deployed its maritime law enforcement into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japanese territory as China escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.