A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
