Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
